This paper analyses different operational central bank policies and their impact on the behaviour of the money market interest rate. The model combines profit maximising behaviour by commercial banks with the central bank supplying the liquidity that keeps the market rate on target. It seems that frequent liquidity supplying operations represent an efficient tool to [...]
Private Indebtedness and the Banking Crisis
In Finland the private sector borrowing started to rise rapidly in conjunction with the liberalization of capital movements and deregulation of the domestic financial sector during the second half of the 1980s. The financial deregulation coincided with and amplified an economic boom marked by favourable income expectations, loose fiscal policy associated with improved terms of [...]
Market power and merger simulation in retail banking
This paper tests market power in the banking industry. Price-cost margins predicted by different oligopoly models are calculated using discrete-choice demand estimates of own-price and cross-price elasticities. These predicted price-cost margins are then compared with price-cost margins computed using observed interest rates and estimates of marginal costs. This paper is among the first to apply [...]
Early intervention and prompt corrective action in Europe
The present crisis has revealed that, as expected, much of the safety net for handling failures in the banking system is deficient, particularly for cross-border banks, and the present problems had to be handled by a range of ad hoc measures. The principal new measure that needs to be undertaken in most countries is the [...]
Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China
We use business survey data collected by the People’s Bank of China for inflation forecasting. Some survey indicators lead to enhanced forecasting performance relative to the univariate benchmark model, especially for a period of moderate inflation. However, the estimated models do not do a good job of tracking the recent pickup in Chinese inflation, due [...]
The Term Structure of Interest Rates: Estimation and Interpretation
This document reports the currently used term structure estimation method at the Bank of Finland and discusses interpretation of the results it generates. We start by introducing two widely used term structure estimation methods: the Cubic Spline Function method and the Nelson-Siegel approach. We compare their results, paying special attention to the smoothness of forward [...]
Job search behavior of unemployed in Russia
This paper explores the determinants of job search behavior, search intensity and choices of search methods of the unemployed workers in transitional Russia. We use pooled data from rounds 5-9 of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) to estimate the effects of socio-economic factors on the choices workers make while looking for a job. The [...]
The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Changes to Import Prices
In this paper we analyze the empirical relevance of exchange rate pass through for Finland, Sweden and Denmark during the period 1980–1994. Further, we attempt to determine if there has been a structural change in the pass-through relationship in the1990s. We find that about half the changes in exchange rates and world prices are passed [...]
Robust learning stability with operational monetary policy rules
We consider the robust stability of a rational expectations equilibrium, which we define as stability under discounted (constant gain) least-squares learning, for a range of gain parameters. We find that for operational forms of policy rules, ie rules that do not depend on contemporaneous values of endogenous aggregate variables, many interest-rate rules do not exhibit [...]
Divergences in the Euro Area: a Cause for Concern?
Evidence suggests that after a period of convergence in the early and mid-1990s, the euro area economies may have started diverging. As a consequence, the common monetary policy could become well-suited for a number of countries. This paper studies the extent and severity of the recent divergences, and discusses the capacity of exposed countries to [...]